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prove_me_wrong
Grey Member
94 Posts |
 Posted - 10/09/2002 : 4:55:06 PM
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AHEM...now that i have got everybody’s attention lets just go ahead to the meat and potatoes....
i would like to have a serious discussion on the existence of intelligent life forms on another planet other than our planet (gia) with its moon(luna) that orbits our sun (sol)....
as you may already know i am a true non-believer in the existence of extra terrestrial intelligent life but i do not share that opinion with many ppl out there... i am not here to change anyone’s mind i am not here to call ppl stupid sheep but i am also not going to give into assumptions, hoaxes, half-truths and flat out lies that you find in popular literature and on the internet.
i have read many MANY MANY things over the past 6-7 years on the subject of pop-alien culture in both the United States and around the world.. i have a great appetite for space science and believe i know a probably more about it than your average person on the street about it. i am also a graphics professional by trade and an expert in image manipulation so it is not much of a problem for me to both disprove and create hoaxed photographs (or video i also have a degree in 3D computer applications)
i believe that ALL ufo’s can be explained as being something other than a alien space craft.. after all they are unidentified flying objects not unidentified flying extra terrestrial objects. i believe that there is not and will never be intelligence in the universe that is the equivalent to our own....after all the bar has to be set somewhere doesn’t it? i do not believe that ppl have been abducted.....do not get me started on ghosts and the paranormal either please that’s a whole other can of worms.
so please...prove me wrong...by all means..
i wont leave the burden of proof all up to you i will submit my own proof to my side of the argument as the discussion goes along. i will not attack anyone or call them stupid and i will keep as open a mind as i can...within reason without sacrificing my opinion..
so lets begin....why do you think we are not alone?
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backchat
Galactic Member
527 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2002 : 8:28:37 PM
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[quote]Originally posted by prove_me_wrong:
Well, what can I say really, I think Hadrianus has said it all much better than I ever could. There are so many questions to be asked and usually, either no answers or a multiple choice of them. We are learning new things every day, some of which are fascinating and others bringing a sense of wariness.
I wonder what men would have said in the old days when they divorced wives because they couldn't bare sons? Yet we all take the knowledge for granted that it is the male who determines the sex of a child.
Man is sceptical by nature, we don't like change and as Hadrianus explained, we have a fear of the unknown. Yet modern science shows us that in many ways we are just scratching the surface of everything. I did a science course last year and thought wow, the cells didn't look like this in my school days. Well we now have powerful electron microscopes to enable us to see what we couldn't before. What further amazed me, was the fact of how we create and store energy in our cells. We literally split atoms. Separating protons and pumping them through channels. Every single part of the universe is made up of atoms, including us. The same thing only in different quantities. States can change from gas to solid, and the only interference is temperature. Can you personaly make water? Yet you know that it exists. Tho we all convert water back to gas everytime we cook or boil the kettle. Do we realise what we are doing?
I learned another interesting thing too. Our planet, and therefor our whole solar system, must have been created from another super nova, and not from the big bang. They know this because, for example, our sun is only hot enough to produce atoms up to iron. So where do we get all the heavy metals in the earths crust from? When a super nova explodes, there is a certain time after the explosion, maybe only seconds, when the heat is sufficient to create the atoms of the heavier elements. So the atoms constituting our solar system could be on their third manifestation by now. Can I get my head round this?
Man could possibly have been alot further ahead in science if he had not been hampered with religious doctrine for centuries. There were atomists long before Christ, coming to conclusions just through the power of observation, but by the time Aristotle and then the Christian church had their way, atomism was shoved on the back burner as a definite no-no. It was only a theory, yet it took us over 2000 yrs to prove it.
Although I agree with you that we need proof of theories, the past tells us that we should not dismiss out of hand things that we yet don't understand and have no concrete proof of. After all, how long have we known that the Earth went around the Sun? Yet it took until 1992 for the Vatican to accept this. Is this why they now have their own telescope in Arizona? None of us can understand why they have one, especially so large and so costly, but they do. Maybe they think they will be able to see God, and who knows - maybe they might.
One of the reasons I personally believed there were such things as UFOs was that there were so many reports of sightings. Not just now, but through time. Times when the only things that flew were the birds. You can't really mistake a large silver disk for a bird. But the most compelling reason for me to believe something was afoot, was the constant and dogmatic denials by our governments.
The laws of averages tells me that of all the trillions x 10 planets there must be in the universe, ours cant be the only one to support life. Especially when the scientists are now saying that the building blocks for amino acids is spread right through the universe. Those amino acids are the basis for DNA. They are contained in the tail of halles comet for example, and to quote one scientist, are as common as muck.
One of the reasons why ppl don't believe in aliens and or UFOs is because if they do they will have to deal with it psychologically. Much better to hide ones head in the sand and not have to deal with the implications. However, there comes a time in ones life when we really do have to sit down and think about 'what if'. And we don't need proof to think 'what if'. I'm only sorry I won't be around long enough to find out the answeres.
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Doug uk
Hybrid Member
United Kingdom
58 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2002 : 08:55:27 AM
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prove me wrong,
If there were nothing to it and lack of credible evidence you would expect interest to wane.The fact of the matter is,there does exist a vast amount of high quality,albeit enigmatic data. UFO sightings are not limited to farmers in backward rural areas. There are astronomers and pilots and NASA engineers,and military sources etc that have come forward with what they have seen.
Of course there are kooks and loons out there and they make the job of debunker a great deal easier although you have to accept that some of the debunkers are also kooks and loons.If a competent witness reports having seen something approaching a steradian in size and the debunker who of course was not there offers Venus or a high altitude weather balloon as an explanation, the requirement of extraordinary proof for an extraordinary claim falls on the proffered negative claim as well. That kind of approach is also pseudo-science.
Take for example the american airlines flight between Newark and Detroit.Whilst over the town of Bradford and cruising at 350 mph he spotted three glowing UFOs to the south and above his position. When the plane entered Pennsylvania air space one of the objects broke formation and moved towards the aircraft. It slowed down for a moment before returning to its original straight line formation. The Captain advised the passengers of the incident which caused a degree of panic amongst them. He also asked for any corroboration from other aircraft in the vicinity and another American Airlines flight confirmed they had been watching the objects too. The entire episode had lasted 45 minutes. Captain Killian was also corroborated by his co-pilot First Officer James Dee. Captain Killian was an extremely experienced pilot and believed the objects to be some kind of Extraterrestrial craft. The US Air Force later claimed that he had mistaken the objects as E47 bomber aircraft during a refuelling operation. Captain Killian dismissed this assertion out of hand stating he was well aware of what a refuelling operation in mid air looked like.
For my money there seems to be too many credible sightings to just write off as kook or loon rantings.
If that is the case why are these kooks and loons commanding missile silo bases and flying airliners and sitting in positions in goverments and military forces.
Why are these pilots and commanders in military forces,police etc not sectioned into a loony bin or at the very least relieved of their employment position rather than continue as normal.
Take a look at the nuclear weapons facilities.According to government records and military eye witnesses. On at least two occasions ufo's visited and interfered with Minuteman Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) near Great Falls, Montana, home of Malmstrom Air Force Base.On the morning of March 16, 1967, glowing, disk-shaped UFOs evidently shut down two wings of Minuteman ICBMs. Echo Flight lost all ten of its missiles during the encounters, while nearby Oscar Flight lost most of its missiles. This was puzzling to investigating engineers because the missiles were designed to be entirely independent of each other. Military records show the events were "cause for grave concern" at Strategic Air Command (SAC) headquarters.Air Force personnel involved in the Minuteman-UFO encounters were sworn to secrecy by their commanding officers.They returned again in 1975 and once again interfered.
Before you can write them off as ufo's how credible is the explanation.Just because the goverment say's so doesnt cut the mustard with me.
In the uk we have a website that reports ufo incidents.The difference being that it is run by a police officer and all sightings are only from police officers or armed forces.
I suppose my view is not do ufo's or aliens exist but are all these claimed sightings and encounters bogus or mistaken goverment black programmes.
For the time being I subscribe to the theory that our planet is not completely full of kooks and loons although there are a lot of them about so untill I am convinced otherwise I will continue to believe that there is a possibility of intelligent beings visiting this planet.
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Elrick
Galactic Member
USA
3102 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2002 : 11:16:55 AM
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This is indeed a frustrating question, do other advanced species other than man, exist in the universe? In many ways, it reminds me of religious discussions, specifically, is there a God (as man has conceptualized)? Here you usually have 2 opposing sides that inspire very strong emotional feelings. It can often be difficult to openly discuss these issues without errupting into a verbal disagreement. Prove me Wrong - thanks for the opertunity to discuss this respectfully without greif to either side. I will briefly state a few things that lead me towards similar beliefs as Hadrianus and a few others here. First off, UFOs do indeed represent something tangable. If the credible eye-witness reports (from military personel, police officers, presidents, church figures, etc...) were not enough, we have radar confirmations also, which some debunkers will claim that UFO dont show up on radar but this claim is false because sometimes they have and do. Now, this is not to say that UFOs are piloted by aliens per say, but the incredible speeds and ability to seemingly change shape or form, and even disappear into nothing....would tend to lean me towards evidence of a technology far beyond our current. That is, unless certain fractions of the human race have been able to develope this technology and thus hide it from the rest of the world for a very very long time. I cant believe that we are the most advanced race to develope so far. If we have set the bar, then I would have to say that the bar hasn't been set very high. I think we still have a long way to go. I like the line from Contact that was something along the lines of, if this is all for us and we are alone, then what an incredible waste of space. In my personal opinion, so far the human race does not deserve to "own" the universe. I dont think we have earned the right to even think that way. We are still quite the self destructive species, not to mention what we do to environments we claim as our own. But I suppose that is another issue all together. It is odd to me that in looking at the proposed evolutionary track of man, with all of its apparent over-night changes, missing links, sudden burst in technological advancements, etc.... why does man's developemental history contain all of these missing gaps and leaps in developement, whether technological or biological? It seems to me that it must be in response to some form of outside stimuli that most other species on earth, have not been exposed to (or at least not to the same extent). Well, I dont have much time at the present so I will rap this up for now. If you are curious as to my interpretations to the question of an alien factor on earth, then read the page a wrote for the site on the question of "Is there proof?". Its not great or anything but I did go a little more into detail than I can at present, and still in no way does it do the scope of this phenomenon justice. You would need to write a book for that in my opinion.
Is There Proof?
"Fulfilling my potential would seriously cut into my sitting around time".
Edited by - Elrick on 10/10/2002 11:32:12 AM |
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prove_me_wrong
Grey Member
94 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2002 : 5:32:51 PM
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First off i think that everyone has some very interesting and intelligently thought out points in their post. given the size of just the three i am going to have to approach this by taking what i feel are the more interesting parts of the discussion and responding to them with my opinion one at a time. if i leave something out that you feel is important to the point of view i am addressing then please feel free to bring it up.
BackChat:
“Man is sceptical by nature, we don't like change and as Hadrianus explained, we have a fear of the unknown. Yet modern science shows us that in many ways we are just scratching the surface of everything.”
I agree with this. On a whole ppl are terrified of the unknown or what they them self may not know. We have hardly scratched the surface of everything we know, do not know or think that we know.. Remember that what we think we know is constantly being rewritten. Even Enstiens theories can be challenged and most likely he was probably wrong on some level or even completely missed the mark but its the closest we have come to understanding things so for the time being we accept it as truth until we can prove it as not being the truth. However you have to approach everything from a scientific point of view and that’s what i feel is the UFO communities main problem. Instead of jumping to conclusions and assuming that your first impression is the right impression we should first rule out what it is not then what it could be.
“Our planet, and therefor our whole solar system, must have been created from another super nova, and not from the big bang.”
I know this is the most popular model for the creation of our solar system (i have heard and watched a lot about this particular subject) but remember it is a theory and not considered concrete fact. it takes a very very long time for this to happen and we wont know exactly how it takes place for a very long time to come. therefore i do not think that “must” is as good as a word as “could have”
“One of the reasons I personally believed there were such things as UFOs was that there were so many reports of sightings. Not just now, but through time. Times when the only things that flew were the birds. You can't really mistake a large silver disk for a bird. But the most compelling reason for me to believe something was afoot, was the constant and dogmatic denials by our governments.”
Reports of sighting are just that...sightings.. No one knows exactly what they saw or else it would not be unidentified. This applies to through out time. It could be that they lacked the words to describe what it was that they did see. What do you call a something that you do not have a word for? however the governments constant and dogmatic denials. Of course they are going to deny something like that. I would imagine as a high ranking military officer this probably becomes a very tedious question that they get tired of answering because its probably asked all the time. Or perhaps they have perpetuated the whole thing to draw attention away from top secret black project aircraft or even space craft under development. I know if i was high up in the military i would rather have ppl thinking they saw a UFO than mabe my top secret aircraft and the best way i could think of to make ppl lean more too the side of the UFO argument is to deny deny deny....if they keep the denial up then there MUST be something to it....right? Yes there would be but it might not be what you think.
“The laws of averages tells me that of all the trillions x 10 planets there must be in the universe, ours cant be the only one to support life.”
With the limited knowledge about we know about the nature of life and the vastness of the universe noting is really definite. Is the universe never ending or does it have an edge? I am afraid we can speculate but there is no way for us to know for sure. But you cant say there must be life somewhere else because as much as we try we cant prove that. Plus if there was an abundance of life in the universe then that shouldn’t be too difficult to prove. I have logged 45 work units and a total of 2,729 + hours with my seti online account and haven’t found anything. That’s just a very small percentage of all the other ppl that use seti online that also have not found any signals.
“One of the reasons why ppl don't believe in aliens and or UFOs is because if they do they will have to deal with it psychologically. Much better to hide ones head in the sand and not have to deal with the implications.”
No argument there....but everyone does that to some extent in their everyday life.
Doug uk:
“ There are astronomers and pilots and NASA engineers,and military sources etc that have come forward with what they have seen.”
Yes there certainly are. The real question is what did they really see. To assume that it was intelligent life from somewhere other than our planet without entertaining the possibility that it was something more explainable is not a great way to approach the truth.
“If a competent witness reports having seen something approaching a steradian in size and the debunker who of course was not there offers Venus or a high altitude weather balloon as an explanation, the requirement of extraordinary proof for an extraordinary claim falls on the proffered negative claim as well. That kind of approach is also pseudo-science.”
What is truly a more realistic explanation? Alien life forms or weather balloons? Its easy for even the most competent person to not understand what he is seeing if it is far away and they are not familiar with the object. I have had an experience where i saw something in the sky i couldn’t explain. It was seen by another person that was with me. I saw a bright star like object doing diagonally across the night sky when i pointed it out it stoped and my friend responded with “you mean the light that just stopped in the sky?” at that point it stayed in the same place for mabe 15 seconds and streaked off in a different direction and was gone. Now its a lot easier for me to swallow the fact that most likely it was a man made object in orbit that was reflecting the sun. It hit the atmosphear and burned up or fell into the shadow of the earth. Doesn’t that sound like a more acceptable explanation than if i said i saw a UFO that could be alien life forms?
“For my money there seems to be too many credible sightings to just write off as kook or loon rantings.”
I do not think you have to be a kook or a loon to not understand what you have seen and jump to conclusions.
“On at least two occasions ufo's visited and interfered with Minuteman Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) near Great Falls, Montana, home of Malmstrom Air Force Base.”
Again I would put this into the category of military propaganda. If there was a problem with the missiles i would rather that ppl think it was alien space craft than it there was a serious flaw with a ballistic missile system. I think that an explanation that it was space aliens would generate a whole lot less panic.
Elrick:
“First off, UFOs do indeed represent something tangable.”
I agree. But what is it really? Shouldnt we rule out everything before we make a conclusion? just because a cop or a marine or a church figure sees something that in no way means that they didn’t see something that is easily explainable. Same applies to radar hits..
“Now, this is not to say that UFOs are piloted by aliens per say, but the incredible speeds and ability to seemingly change shape or form, and even disappear into nothing....would tend to lean me towards evidence of a technology far beyond our current. That is, unless certain fractions of the human race have been able to develope this technology and thus hide it from the rest of the world for a very very long time.”
Can you honestly say that? no one had a clue the SR-71 Blackbird existed and it was kept secret for 30 something years. It still holds the fastest plane in the world title and its official top speed is still classified on this plane and its about 50 years old. Imagine what we are flying now? Also look at the abundance of UAV’s (unmaned aerial vehicles) that are being produced as of recently. I am fairly sure the United states government or possibly the former soviet union might have something so extraordinary that we just wouldn’t believe it was possible if we had seen it with our own two eyes? I am not going to bring up the rumor that Hitler was supposably constructing saucers. That rumor is just way to silly. Even if they were the first to come up with real working rocket technologies.
“n my personal opinion, so far the human race does not deserve to "own" the universe. I dont think we have earned the right to even think that way.”
You got that right...sometimes i wonder if we have much time left. ill have to print out your “is there proof” and read it tonight....i just dont have the time to do it right now..
Honestly i think they there is life out there...sure there is..microbes mabe and insect of some sort but nothing that is as intelligent as the human race. Remember that in the middle ages ppl believed in goblins and dragons and all sorts of mythical stuff even though they never had seen one...i am sure lots of them saw something they didn’t know what it was and assumed it was a dragon or something of the like just like today if you see something in the sky that you cant explain them it must be alien life visiting our planet. The fact still remains that there are hundreds of other explanations to what ppl see. Next time you hear someone say “they said it was a weather balloon..how stupid do they think i am” ask yourself what is the more believable alternative? aliens from space or weather balloons? I saw an airplane the other day on the way home from work and the direction it was travelling and the angle i was looking at it and the speed it was traveling make it seem to just hang in the air without moving. Now i know that it was probably travelling 200+ miles an hour but the way i was looking at it made it seem to just hover. Not moving at all. I think allot of ppl see this sort of thing and assume “well it cant be a aircraft as we know it...they cant do that” well they are right (as far as we know that isn’t kept from us) but that doesn’t out an optical illusion or some sort of of rare atmospheric event.
How come with all the sightings out there and close encounters there doesn’t seem to be one person in the whole world that knows how to focus and snap one single honest to god picture of one alien? believe me every thing that is out there now that could fit into this category is faked or something else altogether. If these crafts sometimes crash then how come we have never had one crash in a major or even minor metropolitan area? How come if our government know of such aliens its still turns out that no one ever has enough free will to expose it once and for all? are all government employees that inherently evil that they would do what they think is their duty at the risk that it could potentially destroy the entire human race or worse enslave it? think about some of that before you answer yes right off the bat. It just doesn’t add up.
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Hadrianus
Galactic Member
Costa Rica
1623 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2002 : 6:14:51 PM
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PROOVE ME WRONG:
Ah, the gauntlet has been thrown.
Life on other planets? You and I have chatted a little before, so I have to ask exactly what you mean. Do you mean let's discuss the POSSIBILITY of life on other planets, or do you mean somebody should PROVE here on the forum that there IS life on other planets?
If you mean 'prove', come on, you know that can't be done here. That's not the purpose of a Forum anyway.
What we CAN do here is propose ideas, bat them around, give and take, and maybe enrich our lives a bit.
We have discussed the Drake equation a little and you pretty much dismissed it out of hand because it is not a rock-hard mathematical expression.
Yes, the variables are, well, variable. But that is no reason to hold them in contempt.
For instance, the equation starts, reasonably enough, with the number of possible candidate stars in this Galaxy around which there MIGHT be life.
That number, in fact, is not so soft.
Current estimates are from 200 to 400 billion stars in the Milky Way (for which there is growing evidence that it is a barred spiral). I would propose 300 billion as a reasonable mean. Now, some of those are of a type (like blue Giants) around which it would be unreasonable to expect life to form, let alone evolve. But such 'non-viable' stars form less than 1% of the total. The rest are, mostly, white, yellow and red dwarfs, all of which MIGHT harbor life. So, given a margin for error, we are still looking ar around 300 BILLION stars.
Next, how many of these have planets?
What do you say would be a reasonable guess? (Yes, GUESS. How else do you propose to proceed than by educated guesses?)
There is one school of thought that proposes when a star forms out of it's proto-stellar cloud, it either becomes a Binary, or the excess material becomes Planets. Since about half of all stars observed are binaries, that would mean the other half possibly have planetary systems. This is being borne out by current research, which is finding systems around more and more nearby stars.
But let's admit that saying 1/2 of all stars have planets is too optimistic. Let's say that only 1 out of 10 stars has a planetary system. That would come out to 30 BILLION solar systems, and that is almost certainly too low. But let's go with it.
Next, there has been a recent proposal that the Galaxy, like the Solar system, has a 'habitable zone'. The astronomer Shih Tzu Huang once observed that for any given star, there is an optimum distance at which a planet might orbit if it was to support life. This has been called the 'Huang Radius'. Closer to the star, it is too hot. Farther from the star, it is too cold.
The recent proposal about the Galaxy observes there might also be a corresponding radius from the Galactic center within which a planet must form for life to exist.
Too close to the Galactic center, the danger of collision is too high. There is also an increasing danger of being too close to a Supernova as the density of stars increases. There are also Gamma Ray Bursters to worry about. The random radiation the closer you get to the Galactic core would have the same effect on any life as a microwave. Not to mention any really nasty radiation bursts from the central mega-black hole.
So there is a belief that unless a planet forms around a star a certain distance or more out from the Galactic core, it cannot sustain evolving life.
On the other hand, the metallicity of the proto-stellar clouds demonstrably decreases the farther you get from the Galactic core.
At a certain distance the metallicity gets so low that the liklihood of planets forming at all falls way off. So it is unlikely there are solar systems around any appreciable number of stars forming outside the habitable zone.
What is the effect of this speculation? It reduces the number of stars in our total which might have life forms around them.
By how much?
As you have pointed out, this is not a hard number, because how could we know for sure? But a REASONABLE ESTIMATE is available. This holds that about 20% of all the stars in this Galaxy would fall within the 'habitable zone'.
That would mean 1/5 of our estimated solar systems, or 6 BILLION of them, would exist in a part of the Galaxy where life might be possible (and gee, wouldn't you know it? The Earth is right smack dab in the middle of the habitable zone).
Now, how many of these solar systems would have Earth-like worlds? (This is assuming that you NEED an Earth-like world for life to begin. For all we know, life exists on Jupiter too. But if we stick with what we know, life certainly seems to thrive on a planet like Earth).
It should be noted that OUR solar system has THREE Earth-like worlds within the Huang Radius, and several others (such as Europa, Ganymede, and Titan) outside it.
Is this usual?
Of course we can't KNOW until we have charted a statistically valid number of other systems in some detail, which we have not.
So if you insist on KNOWING with the same certainty that you know the Sun will rise tomorrow (but how certain are you even of that?) then, of course, we must stop here.
But I propose that all knowing is tinged with varying shades of grey. YOU may demand black and white, but that is just your ideosyncracy. You will never get it.
We never really know anything for certain. It is all approximation, to some fine degree. And I fail to see why, if we cannot know with 'absolute certainty' the number of Earth-like worlds in this Galaxy, we must therefore hang our heads, run into our little caves, and shiver in unknowing fear.
I propose that the Sun is, as far as can be told, a fairly average Yellow Dwarf Star. On this basis I propose it is similar in many respects to other Yellow Dwarf Stars. We know there are a considerable number of those because we can SEE them.
I would also therefore propose that if the Sun is an average Yellow Dwarf, the solar system that has formed around the Sun is also in it's way average. It may not be average in the sense that ALL other systems have 3 Earth-like worlds within their Huang radii, but some MUST. For you to deny that would be to take a position so logically unsound that I would be forced to simply ignore you.
I would say, following this line of reasoning, that there are probably some solar systems without any Earth-like worlds at all, and some with far more than 3.
But let's be conservative. Let's try saying that only ONE out of every 10 solar systems has JUST ONE earth-like world within it's Huang radius. I would have to say that number probably errs VERY much on the low side, but let's try working with it.
(Are you still with me? Or have you given up in disgust?)
That would come out to this Galaxy having 600 MILLION Earth-like worlds (and I would say that is on the very low side. There may very well be billions).
Well, and so what? Venus and Mars are Earth-like worlds too, and there's no life on them, right?
Maybe.
Aside from all that hoo-ha over the Mars meteorite with possible micro-fossils in it, there is the observation that when they began, all three worlds, Earth, Mars and Venus, were VERY similar. They all had thick proto-atmospheres of Carbon Dioxide and they all had, we now believe, liquid water oceans.
Life may very well have begun on Mars, and in a few decades we may know the answer to that question for certain (what would you say THEN?) But I think with the current conditions on Mars, if there once was life there, by now it certainly is extinct.
And Venus went so haywire that it seems as likely that life there never even began.
So it is obvious that just because you have an Earth-like world in the proper orbit doesn't mean you will get a living planet.
But if life DID begin on Mars, it would mean that 2 out of 3 Earth-like planets in the habitable zone of this star had life start on them. Thats 66%, pretty respectable.
But lets just assume that life began on Earth and Earth only. In that case, it could be a fluke, right?
But that sort of depends on how you think life began, doesn't it?
Are you a Bible fanatic in disguise? Come here to this Forum to push your view that intelligent life exists only on Earth because you were brainwashed by some Church when you were 4 or 5 years old?
I don't want to believe that, because that would be a very dishonest thing for anyone to do, don't you think?
So I assume you are somewhat susceptable to reason (although I could be wrong).
If you don't INSIST that the Bible is the ONLY valid source of knowledge on this question, then you have to take into account the scientific research that has been done along these lines to date.
This has shown that in environments such as existed on the early Earth, as well as presumably Mars and Venus (since they and the Earth were near-twins) highly complex organic compounds form naturally, without the need of a Deus ex Machina.
From this scientists are certain that the oceans of Earth contained a highly complex and varied 'soup' of proteins, amino acids, and other of life's building blocks, all as a result of naturally occurring chemical processes.
From this it is logical to draw the conclusion that any other worlds which formed similar to the Earth elsewhere would also have such 'organic soups' in their oceans.
Did this give rise to life? Most scientists believe it did. Most religious fundamentalists insist it did not. (But then again, they don't KNOW).
If you will admit that life on Earth likely arose out of this 'soup' , how often on the average would this happen on any Earth-like world?
If Mars once had life, we could assume it happens quite often. If not, it might be a rare occurrence.
So rare that it has only happened here, as you suggest?
That would be a highly illogical and quite presumptuous assumption.
As the Universality of Physics tells us, if a phenomenon happens once, it will happen again. It may be rare, but the concept of "unique" has no analog in the real world.
So what would be a reasonable guess (yes, there's that word again) for how many Earth-like worlds develop life? Would you say 1 out of 10 is reasonable? I would too. So, just to humor the skeptic in you, let's say 1 out of 100.
That would give us 6 MILLION worlds in this Galaxy with life on them.
And that brings us up smack against the concept of Evolution.
Do you believe in Evolution? ALL scientific evidence we now have points to it being a valid concept.
Of course, if you are a secret Bible-thumper who rejects such an idea because it goes against the 'Word of God', you have a closed mind and you really don't belong on this Forum.
But the fact you are here leads me to assume that you have some flexibility in your mental processes and are willing to admit the possibility that Evolution is a valid concept.
At the Green Bank conference in 1961, when the Drake Equation was first proposed, the assembled scientists there assumed that not only, once you had a biosphere, did life evolve, but that it would, if left to itself, evolve into intelligence.
I think that is a questionable assumption.
I do assume that evolution is a process inherent in the fact of life and that all biospheres, if not destroyed by extraneous factors (as was the biosphere of Mars, if it ever had one) will evolve.
But will they evolve intelligence?
The only example we have for that is the biosphere of Earth, which may or may not be typical.
But I will observe that intelligence, as a line of evolution, has occurred on Earth not just once, but three times (Cetaceans, Humans and Stenonychosaurus). This indicates to me that evolution has a strong tendency toward developing intelligent species.
You can argue this all you want (I expect you will) but for the moment, I will assume from the evidence that SOME evolving biospheres develop intelligent species.
How many?
One out of ten?
Let's say one out of 100, which is probably, again, far too conservative.
That would come out to 60,000 planets in this Galaxy with intelligent beings on them.
But let's even allow for more of a 'fudge factor' and reduce that number by a further base of 10 (which would be to postulate that only 1 out of 1000 biospheres eventually evolve intelligent species).
We still get 6,000 intelligent Alien races.
Now, I'm not going to claim that figure as a FACT. But I will say, based on such reasoning, that it is HIGHLY LIKELY that there have been, are, or will be, several thousand sentient Alien races in this Galaxy.
No, we are not alone.
In a prior post you rejected this kind of reasoning out-of-hand by saying "it's not precise enough". Maybe not. But aren't YOU setting the bar too high?
And if there are thousands of advanced races in this Galaxy, what are the odds that a few of them have at least heard the radio signals we have been sending out for the last 80 years advertising "We Are Here", and that we are being watched?
Isn't this sort of thing enough to make you at least wonder?
Edited by - Hadrianus on 10/16/2002 10:32:46 AM |
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prove_me_wrong
Grey Member
94 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2002 : 11:03:51 PM
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Ok, I was really interested in what you had to say before you started attacking religion. I am not a deeply religious man but I am not an atheist. I do not attend a church of any denomination. But I do respect the fact that a majority of people in the world hold one form of religion or another as a guide on how to live your life with hope and happiness. I am not spending my time on this board to define my faith or anyone else.
God works in mysterious ways. If there were alien disclosure tomorrow would that mean that people stop believing in god? I would hope not. Imagine the immorality. However, that’s a whole other can of worms that should stay on Billy Grams bbs. I assume you are an atheist and that’s fine with me, but of course then you would be in the minority. You would be hard pressed to find an atheist in a foxhole.
Long point short. I am not basing my opinion of any ancient manuscript or religious belief however if you want to start calling ppl bible thumpers or Jew’s or whatnot that is crossing the line a bit. I am not calling anyone lunatics or morons even if I did think that. I could just as easily say you are off your rocker need mental help. This is not the first board I have argued this opinion on but it is by far the most intelligent and to this point interested in having a constructive discussion. I wont stop debating this subject but from now on lets leave religion totally out of the subject unless you want to talk about how it deals with the implications of how the world on a whole would react to the visitation or presence OR interaction with alien life forms with the question of what their faith or believe in a higher power might be.
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Hadrianus
Galactic Member
Costa Rica
1623 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 02:21:19 AM
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PROOVE ME WRONG:
Point taken.
By the way, I am a religious person myself, in that I do believe in God.
It may well be true that a majority of people on this planet believe in God, but it is fairly certain a majority of them also do not believe in the Judeo-Christian Bible.
Many times in the past, when I have run into people who are dead-set against even considering the possibility of alien life, and who make blanket statements like you do that the only life in the Universe is here on Earth, they were basing their beliefs on the authority of the Bible, so I wondered where you were coming from, that's all.
You are right, a discussion of the possibility of Alien life or the reality of UFO's should not even mention the Bible, and I promise to keep away from it in these discussions if everyone else will.
If I offended your religious beliefs, I sincerely apologise. I can be somewhat insensitive on these issues, I know.
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backchat
Galactic Member
527 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 12:02:35 PM
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[quote]Originally posted by Hadrianus:
PROOVE ME WRONG:
Ah, the gauntlet has been thrown.
Nice post Hadrianus, you explained that really well.
15 or even ten years ago, if you asked anyone ' do you believe there are other intelligent geings in the universe'? the answer would probably have been an emphatic no. However times have changed and it is now thought that 80% of adults in the western world agree that there is a great possibility in life evolving elsewhere. Prove I'm Wrong, it was up to the believers to try to convince the non-believers, however, the non-believers are now in the MINORITY, so I feel it is up to you to Prove to us that there is no intelligent life other than here on earth
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prove_me_wrong
Grey Member
94 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 1:14:33 PM
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Hadrianus:
thank you for the apology. It proves that you are a bigger man than most ppl. Your explanation of the Drake equation does leave allot to ponder when put that way. I am not sold on the equation and i still consider it on the most part incomplete and speculative however i will have to elaborate on it after i have had time do a little research and sketch out an appropriate response (that’s a hell of allot of numbers and scientific theory to just jump right into).
Backchat:
“15 or even ten years ago, if you asked anyone ' do you believe there are other intelligent beings in the universe'? the answer would probably have been an emphatic no. However times have changed and it is now thought that 80% of adults in the western world agree that there is a great possibility in life evolving elsewhere. Prove I'm Wrong, it was up to the believers to try to convince the non-believers, however, the non-believers are now in the MINORITY, so I feel it is up to you to Prove to us"
Those figures are questionable at best. If you are going to make a statement that 80% of adults in the western world agree to that please include a link or reference to the pole that you are speaking of. Anyone can come up with a number (not saying you made the number up) and claim it to be the result of a independent pole. As we probe further and further into the universe i believe we are going to find a hell of allot more questions than we do answers. I am not trying to exactly prove you wrong (the name is just something i pulled out of the air) or change your mind. I am sure everyone out there who would argue against the way i think at one point or another will think to them self “how on earth could someone actually believe that there is no intelligent life out there? that’s silly!” of course i think the same thing but the exact opposite. I feel there is equal evidence to discuss the possibility of both side of the coin.
if i can quote Hadrianus
“Do you mean let's discuss the POSSIBILITY of life on other planets, or do you mean somebody should PROVE here on the forum that there IS life on other planets? If you mean 'prove', come on, you know that can't be done here. That's not the purpose of a Forum anyway.”
i agree....there is no way that a hand full of ppl on a internet forum could ever passably prove the argument one way or the other. So lets discuss the evidence and i will let you make up your own conclusion based on what you feel. However, how stimulating would it be to discuss the whole thing if everyone was on the same side? I am simply suppling an alternative to think about. I can tell you now I do not think there is anyway you can convince me outright but i would expect no less from anyone else on the other side of the fence.
Edited by - prove_me_wrong on 10/11/2002 1:17:25 PM |
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Doug uk
Hybrid Member
United Kingdom
58 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 1:45:30 PM
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Here's a few poll results that I turned up from a search.Althouh they are a few years old now.
A recent poll of nearly 1,500 people nationwide revealed that more than 70 percent of those surveyed believe that intelligent life exists in our universe.
The poll was conducted by a syndicated cable television talk show called “Dateline: USA,” which airs in Los Angeles and New York.
http://www.4yi.com/2000/0124UFOs/s1.html
BBC 1999 - Just over half of Britons believe in extra terrestrial life. According to a survey for the popular science magazine Focus, 50.2% of people said alien life must exist in the universe somewhere. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/254277.stm
CNN 1997 - Nearly 50 years since an alleged UFO was sighted at Roswell, New Mexico, a new CNN/Time poll released Sunday shows that 80 percent of Americans think the government is hiding knowledge of the existence of extraterrestrial life forms.While nearly three-quarters of the 1,024 adults questioned for the poll said they had never seen or known anyone who saw a UFO, 54 percent believe intelligent life exists outside Earth.
Sixty-four percent of the respondents said that aliens have contacted humans, half said they've abducted humans, and 37 percent said they have contacted the U.S. government. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.http://www.cnn.com/US/9706/15/ufo.poll/
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prove_me_wrong
Grey Member
94 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 2:53:13 PM
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Doug uk:
Ah, now that’s something i can respond to fairly quickly. I find it interesting that 80 percent of the ppl poled in the US believed but when we jump to the other side of the pond our brothers in england only score a 50.2%. Now why is this? I have never had the privilege of visiting the UK and unfortunitly do not know any native brittons but i would wonder if the difference would have something to do with culture? To be more spisific entertainment culture. In the US the UFO following has a HUGE fan base that exerts allot of influence on the population with Movies (independence day, the communion), documentaries (pick any roswell one..there are plenty), radio shows (art bell) and of course TV programs (Enterprise, Sightings...i could go on and on with this category) now how much of an impact does that have on the population as a whole? Younger ppl will be more in line with this way of thinking because they have been conditioned to it.So one thing i would ask is how much TV do ppl in the UK really watch? do you think that they watch more TV than Americans? Let me tell you we watch a hell of allot of TV. we probably watch more TV than any other civilized country in the world. I can only theorize that would part way explain why there is such a gap the numbers. Quote from first article.
“It’s an interesting subject. There’s just a lot of interest in science fiction. It’s just one of those things that comes and goes, and right now, it’s in the forefront,” Widder said.”
But there is another point to think about...how accurate is a nationwide pole? how honest are the ppl that are conducting the pole? do they want the pole to end up backing the story they are thinking of writing in the first place? are they even asking the amount of ppl that claim to ask. where are they asking it? would probably get a different result if you ask only ppl in small rural towns than you would sprawling metropolitan areas. the article in the BBC news backs this up to a certain extent by saying. “Only 43% of people in the North West believe in aliens while 65% in the South West and 58% in East Anglia do.”
So while i put no stock in any pole that i have ever seen (including internet poles because ppl can vote more than once) i will give you this. I would be in the minority in the United States in my belief that we are not alone in the universe but how do people come to this conclusion? Is it influenced mainly by popular media and the large UFO community because most of the ppl that were “poled” also said they them self had never experienced anything that would actually give them that opinion.
In this day and age it is a popular opinion that there is life in the universe (most places but not all over the world) but here is a giant what if. What if in a few hundred years ET has still not shown any signs of being out there and we as a human species are now out in the universe doing whatever it is that we will do out there. Would the popular opinion then switch? i think it might but that’s neither here nor there.
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backchat
Galactic Member
527 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 6:58:02 PM
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[quote]Originally posted by Doug uk:
thanks for these figures Doug, appreciate them
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backchat
Galactic Member
527 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 7:06:58 PM
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[quote]Originally posted by prove_me_wrong:
just a word from a UK perspective, well my own really, maybe Doug UK has quantatative evidence that I don't. However, maybe we didn't or don't have as many sightings in our country as in the USA. I don't know about the hours of TV watched in your country, but maybe the programme content has something to do with it. I don't know of any study to date so I cannot comment on that. But thank you for your views anyway.
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Doug uk
Hybrid Member
United Kingdom
58 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 8:02:21 PM
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Prove me wrong,you have a valid point regarding a possible difference on tv cultures.However in my opinion I would say we are very much a nation of tv addicts as you are on your side of the pond.We may not have as many channels as you guys do but I reckon we have the same programmes as you get.
We have various Discovery channels and a sci-fi channel etc and virtually never go a week without some sort of ufo documentry on,at this moment 12.45 am ufo-down to earth is on one of the discovery channels.
Here's a link that shows our channels if you are interested. http://www.guardian.co.uk/TV/0,4658,210644,00.html
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prove_me_wrong
Grey Member
94 Posts |
Posted - 10/11/2002 : 10:32:29 PM
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Backchat:
“However, maybe we didn't or don't have as many sightings in our country as in the USA.”
I can answer that for you Backchat. It made me think a little so I looked up some numbers. The reason is most likely because of size and population. I really had no idea the enormous size difference between our two counties. The estimated population of the United States of America is 288,257,648 and has an estimated area of 244,101 sq km (94,248 sq mi) in size while the United Kingdom has an estimated population of 58,789,194 and an estimated area of 9,629,091 sq km (3,717,796 sq mi). Now that’s a difference of 229,468,454 in our population and a difference of 9,384,990 sq km (3,623,548 sq mi) in size. So basically we just have more people in more space to witness something that popular ufo culture would consider a sighting.
USA population link
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/popclock
UK population link
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=185
The populations of individual countries were: England 49,138,831 (83.6 per cent of the total population); Scotland 5,062,011 (8.6 per cent); Wales 2,903,085 (4.9 per cent); Northern Ireland 1,685,267 (2.9 per cent).
Doug uk:
I believe this may answer the question of TV culture to a small degree. I looked over the listing you sent me and the listing I could find where I live. While we have access to more channels (unless you own a satellite dish) there is about the same amount of material on the subject of alien life and UFO culture. I believe its is mainly because these programs are fairly poplar in many countries and through global capitalism they are sold and used in many popular markets. Btw if there was a 24 hour Young One’s channel I would probably never leave the house.
Edited by - prove_me_wrong on 10/11/2002 10:35:31 PM |
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serious discussion: are we alone?
